Poor health, murders fuel Russia population crisis

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A tiny birthrate, alcoholism, smoking and lethal violence meant the number of Russians who died in 2004 outstripped the number born at a pace that could spell disaster for the future of the world’s biggest country.

State Statistics Committee figures released on Wednesday showed that the Russian death rate exceeded the birth rate by 50 percent, or three deaths for every two births. The population fell half a percent over 2004 to 143.5 million. Only a decade ago, 148 million people lived in Russia.

"You cannot say that the demographic crisis has ended, the death rate is still very unfavourable,” said Boris Revich, of the Demography and Human Ecology Centre at the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Official projections suggest Russia’s population could be as low as 100 million by 2050. Neighbouring China’s population is projected to be above 1.4 billion.

“The population is falling a lot faster than in the West above all because of the high death rate, which is caused by so-called external causes - drinking, smoking, traffic accidents and of course murder,” Revich said.

The fall has been driven by poor healthcare, which has been underfunded since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and an insubstantial birth rate. Alcoholism and heavy smoking pushed male life expectancy to 15 years less than that of a U.S. man.

Falling populations, or a slowing rate of growth, are a feature of countries across the developed world. But none come close to Russia’s exponential figures.

“This is not so significant in the short term, but in the medium and long term it is definitely significant,” said Vladimir Tikhomirov, senior economist at URALSib corporation.

“There will be a shortage of labour in Russia going into the future and the age structure means the number of elderly will increase so that will put pressure on the pension fund.”

He said the shrinking workforce would complicate Russia’s drive to diversify its economy away from energy and mining industries, which require minimal labour for high returns.

“The underlying reason for the birth rate is social-economic. Although the situation is improving, ... for many young couples it is still not good enough.”

The social problems that have driven the population fall were graphically illustrated in suicide and murder rates.

More than 46,000 Russians killed themselves last year at a rate of 35 per 100,000 population. The murder rate was almost as high, with close to 36,000 people being killed - almost 100 murders a day countrywide.

The massacre at the Beslan school siege in September, where more than 330 hostages were killed - mostly children - accounted for only 1 percent of the year’s murder total.

Deaths from alcohol numbered 34,500 and transport accidents killed nearly 39,000 people.

“It will take many years to fight this, and there are few programmes to reduce specific causes of death,” said Babich. 

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