Docs will be in short supply in US, analysts say

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Policymakers and the medical profession need to recognize and take immediate steps to avert a looming shortage of physicians, analysts told a forum on Capitol Hill Tuesday.

“If we don’t act soon” to take steps to increase the physician supply, “we could be facing some very undesirable conditions and fewer options,” Edward Salsberg of the Association of American Medical Colleges told the forum sponsored by the Alliance for Academic Internal Medicine and the consulting firm the Lewin Group. 

While the number of medical students has remained relatively constant, the need for physicians is likely to grow in the coming years, as 78 million baby boomers reach the age when their health needs peak.

The shortage of doctors may stem from the supply side as well as the demand side. Younger physicians, those under age 36, “are working about 10% fewer hours” than their older colleagues, said Timothy Dall of Lewin.

At the same time, half of today’s medical students are women, and women are more likely to want to work part-time, said Stephanie Pincus, a member of the Council on Graduate Medical Education. Women physicians in a system that fails to accommodate their family needs are also more likely to retire early. “What a waste,” she said.

“We need to think about what to do to keep physicians in the field,” said Salsberg.

One potential source of relief is a growing number of physician assistants, nurse practitioners and other non-physician health professionals.

Stephen Crane of the American Association of Physician Assistants said that by 2010,there will be 80,000 physician assistants eligible to practice in the U.S., up from 62,000 this year. “Any workforce analysis that doesn’t take into account non-physician health professionals doesn’t just miss the boat, it will miss the ship,” he said.

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