Bird flu - the battle could be over

Even though Dr. David Nabarro, chief pandemic flu coordinator for the United Nations says he is encouraged by how both Thailand and Vietnam had responded to the health crisis facing their domestic poultry, and their successful efforts to reduce the threat of the disease, the deadly H5N1 strain still remains a significant threat, especially to Indonesia and Africa.

He has attributed the success of the two countries to very strong political leadership, excellent work by government officials, and intensive involvement of people at the community level.

Nabarro says despite the positive signs, it did not mean the threat of bird flu had abated.

He warns that the killer virus, which emerged in South-East Asia in 2003, could still mutate into a more virulent strain which could become a human pandemic.

In Vietnam where almost 50 percent of the initial cases were reported, not a single human case or an outbreak of flu in poultry has occurred this year.

Thailand which was the second-hardest-hit nation has also not seen a human case for over a year or a poultry outbreak for over six months.

These positive signs are welcomed by health experts along with the fact that despite predictions, birds making the spring migration north from Africa have not brought the bird flu virus into Europe.

Officials however are reluctant to declare the battle is over as the virus remains a threat in both Myanmar and Indonesia where the World Health Organization (WHO) is presently investigating suspected bird flu infections in eight people in a large family where four have already died.

Many now believe that measures to protect domestic flocks such as culling suspect poultry and inoculating healthy birds, and educating farmers, can successfully contain any bird flu outbreak.

But Dr. Nabarro advises caution since very little is known about how the disease spreads or if the current situation is a lull before the storm and other experts agree.

He says that Vietnam and Thailand adopted different methods to fight the disease.

The Vietnamese undertook a massive vaccination program of all poultry, while Thailand who could not afford a vaccination program resorted to culling and compensated farmers who lost their poultry stock.

Thailand also appointed a volunteer in every village to report sick chickens and vaccinated all their fighting cocks, which bring in a revenue of thousands of dollars.

The vaccinated fighter cocks are then given passports along with their vaccination records allowing them to travel freely.

According to the World Health Organization, Thailand and Vietnam were also quite scrupulous with regard to the anti-viral drug Tamiflu and supplies were sent to even the smallest regional hospitals, and health workers instructed to begin treating suspected cases prior to confirmatory diagnosis.