More labs close to deadly bird flu mutations: researcher

An international debate over whether to censor new research on bird flu may soon prove academic, as other laboratories close in on similar findings showing how one of the most deadly viruses could mutate to be transmitted from one person to another.

Ron Fouchier of Erasmus Medical Center in the Netherlands is pushing for openness. He is the lead researcher on one of the studies that showed how the H5N1 virus can be transmitted through airborne droplets between ferrets, a model for studying influenza in humans.

In December a U.S. advisory board asked two leading journals, Nature and Science, to withhold details of the research for fear it could be used by bioterrorists.

Bird flu is already one of the most deadly, though it can only be acquired through contact with infected birds. The potential for it to pass between people, through sneezes and coughs, sparks fears of a global pandemic worse than the 1918-19 Spanish flu outbreak that killed an estimated 20 million to 40 million people.

In an opinion piece published in Science on Thursday, Fouchier argued for the release the research to help public health officials better prepare for a scenario where the virus could mutate and become more deadly, spreading from person to person via coughs and sneezes.

He emphasized that other researchers are close to the same findings, some of them inadvertently, and should be warned in advance how the virus could become airborne.

"We have identified, from the published literature, laboratories working with H5N1 viruses that may only require one to three mutations before the viruses used may become transmissible" via airborne particles, the Erasmus team wrote.

They did not identify the other laboratories, though other experts say they include facilities in both government and academia.

"We want them to be careful," Fouchier said in an interview. "They did not know that they were one or two or three mutations away" from having an easily transmissible mutant virus.

The request by the U.S. National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity has set off an intense debate about how to balance the free flow of scientific information against the threat of an "Armageddon" weapon if that research falls into the wrong hands.

In a statement to Reuters, Science said that its "editors are optimistic that details regarding an information transfer mechanism can be resolved in a matter of weeks."

DEADLY IN MORE THAN HALF OF CASES

First detected in 1997 in Hong Kong, H5N1 has devastated duck and chicken flocks in countries such as Cambodia, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, and Iran, and has reached the Middle East and Europe through wild birds.

Lab analysis has confirmed that 577 people have been infected, but there may be many uncounted cases. Of those, 340 died, a fatality rate never before seen from a flu virus: the Spanish flu killed an estimated 0.5 percent of those it infected, while seasonal flu in the United States kills about 0.003 percent of those who catch it.