Asia acts but helpless if deadly bird flu occurs

Richer Asian nations may be arming themselves to fight off a feared bird flu pandemic, but experts say such a scourge would be almost unstoppable and urged tougher action to stop the virus from spreading in poultry.

The H5N1 virus has killed nine people in Vietnam in recent weeks and health experts say they are aware of unreported outbreaks of the disease in poultry in nearby countries - all alarm bells after the World Health Organisation warned of a potential pandemic that could kill millions this winter.

Japan, Hong Kong, Thailand and China have all stocked up on drugs and stepped up their fight against the virus in poultry. Drug firms are racing to produce a super vaccine.

But experts say there is no realistic way to control the virus if it mutates and becomes capable of spreading from human-to-human.

"If the virus gets adapted to humans, no one, no place could cope with it because it is so infectious, and the mortality rate is so high," said Leo Poon, an expert on the virus and professor of microbiology at the University of Hong Kong.

The virus made its first known jump to humans in Hong Kong in 1997, killing six people. Since late 2003, it has killed 41 in Thailand and Vietnam, or up to 75 percent of its victims.

Most victims were infected directly by birds. Only one of several suspected cases of human-to-human infections has been fairly definitely confirmed.

GOVERNMENTS ACT AGAINST LOOMING DISASTER

The WHO warned last week that the bird flu virus was now endemic in Asia and it appeared to be evolving in ways that increasingly favoured the start of a deadly human outbreak.

Faced with such a doomsday scenario, some governments have kicked into action. China has issued calls to immunise poultry, supervise markets and monitor transportation of live poultry to prevent the H5N1 virus from spreading.

Japan has stocked up enough Tamiflu, a drug that the WHO says can protect against bird flu, to treat 20 million people, but it has a population of more than 127 million.

Japan plans to ask people to refrain from travelling abroad or at home and temporarily close schools in case of an epidemic.

Thailand has approved a three-year, $104 million plan to combat the disease with education programmes, more laboratories, drugs and surgical masks. Vendors will need to pack slaughtered chicken in sealed plastic bags to minimise the risk of human exposure to the virus.

Hong Kong has enforced strict vaccination programmes for chickens and biosecurity measures for farms since 1997. It plans to double its stocks of Tamiflu, although that will only be enough for just over 5 percent of its 7 million population.

Experts still believe most nations would be helpless if the H5N1 virus becomes as easily transmittable as human flu. That could happen if the bug got into an animal, most probably a pig, and mingled with the type of influenza virus that affects people.