Lilly likens Alzheimer's race to 1920s insulin quest

Drugmaker Eli Lilly & Co is confident it will do for Alzheimer's patients what it did almost a century ago for diabetics - find a breakthrough treatment, even though skeptics say it could take years.

"We are on the cusp here of writing medical history again as a company, this time in Alzheimer's disease," Jan Lundberg, Lilly's research chief, said in an interview.

Just as the Indianapolis-based company made history in the 1920s by producing the first insulin when type 1 diabetes was a virtual death sentence, Lundberg said he is optimistic that the drugs Lilly is currently testing could significantly slow the ultimately fatal memory-robbing disease.

"It is no longer a question of 'if' we will get a successful medicine for this devastating disease on the market, but when," said Lundberg, 59.

To be sure, companies often tout drugs in the pipeline that never make it to market. Lundberg's degree of confidence is striking given that Lilly's most closely watched experimental drug - solanezumab - failed two big late-stage studies earlier this year. Analysts said the drug still has a slight chance of approval because it delayed memory loss in Alzheimer's patients with mild symptoms - something no other drug has ever done.

Lilly desperately needs new big-selling medicines to replace lost sales of several of its biggest products that now face competition from cheaper generics. A successful Alzheimer's drug could bring in billions of dollars each year.

An estimated 5 million people in the United States have Alzheimer's, the biggest cause of dementia. More than 35 million people worldwide are believed to have dementia, including Alzheimer's disease, and those numbers are expected to rise as more countries see lifespans increase. But truly effective treatments have eluded researchers.

"Alzheimer's is fatal, ultimately with no survivors, so we are in desperate need for an effective therapy," said Dr. Ronald Petersen, director of the Alzheimer's Disease Research Center at the Mayo Clinic. "Is Lilly poised to make that contribution? I don't know. But they are pursuing very good options."

Petersen said Alzheimer's may be more complex than diabetes, and thus harder to make quick strides against, as Lilly did with insulin. "There may not be a silver bullet. We've had so many failures of Alzheimer's drugs, so we don't want to be inappropriately optimistic."

THE WAIT FOR APPROVAL

And even as Wall Street looks for an Alzheimer's treatment that will deliver blockbuster revenues, many remain cautious.

"Lilly is one of the leaders, but this is going to take a lot longer than we all want it to," said Cowen and Co analyst Steve Scala. "I doubt a drug will have a meaningful impact on the course of the disease for the next five years."

Lilly also faces competition from other drugmakers like Merck & Co and Roche Holding AG that have promising Alzheimer's compounds that could reap annual sales in the billions of dollars.