Killer flu: Could the world cope?

It is only a matter of time before a major outbreak of potentially deadly flu, according to scientists. Could the world cope?
There have been three flu pandemics during the past 100 years.

The 1918 Spanish flu is estimated to have killed up to 50m people worldwide.
The Asian flu of 1957 was caught much earlier but still claimed one million lives. The Hong Kong flu of 1968 was responsible for a similar number of deaths.

It has been 37 years since the last major outbreak and scientists, health professionals and some governments are getting twitchy.

'Inevitable outbreak'

Most scientists agree that another flu pandemic is inevitable. Many say it is overdue.

"It really is inevitable," says Dr Alan Hay, director of the World Influenza Centre in London. "We don't know when it will arrive but we are anticipating it."

Some experts believe the next killer flu may already have arrived.

"Avian flu might yet be the next pandemic virus," says John Oxford, professor of virology at St Bartholomew's and the Royal London School of Medicine.

The latest outbreak of bird flu in Asia has killed about 50 people. Millions of chickens have been slaughtered.

There has been no confirmed case yet of this particular strain of the virus being passed from human to human.

However, scientists are worried that the virus could mutate and could pass from one person to another, triggering a possible pandemic.

Those fears are not groundless. Dutch scientists say three people who caught bird flu when a different strain hit the Netherlands in 2003 may have caught it from people and not animals.

The World Health Organization has been urging the international community for years to prepare for the next flu pandemic.

It estimates a future outbreak could kill as many as 650,000 people in industrialised countries. The figure would be significantly higher in the developing world.

Recent outbreaks of bird flu and Sars have spurred some countries into action. However, others are lagging behind.

"The WHO has been desperately trying to get countries to take this seriously," Professor Oxford says. "It has 192 members but only 12 have done anything about it.

"People really need to think about what happens when this virus arrives - who is going to do what; what vaccines are available; who is going to distribute them and who is going to bury people when they die."

Emergency plans

In early 2004, Canada, which was hit hard by Sars, outlined its plans for dealing with a flu pandemic. The 450-page document spells out what actions authorities will take in the event of an outbreak.