Up to 89 million more AIDS victims in Africa by 2025 - UN

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A further 89 million people in Africa could be infected with HIV by 2025 in the continent’s biggest crisis since slavery, the United Nations said on Friday.

The worst case scenario, which projects a four-fold increase in deaths from the deadly infection over 20 years, is one of three contained in a report by the UNAIDS agency.

“With the HIV/AIDS pandemic spreading across the continent, Africa is facing an unprecedented crisis and a challenge never before seen since the advent of slavery,” said Dr. Peter Piot, executive director of the Geneva-based UNAIDS.

Even with strong control programs—at a cumulative cost of $200 billion—46 million new infections are forecast in Africa during the period, according to the report, “AIDS in Africa: Three scenarios to 2025.”

This best-case scenario means 43 million new HIV infections could be averted between now and 2025, it said.

Some 25 million people in sub-Saharan Africa are already living with HIV/AIDS, 70 percent of the total number worldwide. The virus affects around 5 percent of the adult population and the epidemic has orphaned some 11 million children.

Piot urged countries in the world’s poorest continent to take tough measures to tackle the huge problem, suggesting that help from rich countries would be limited.

“Many lives could be saved and entire economies could be profoundly changed through determined collective efforts of all African nations by 2025,” Piot told a news conference.

“In the absence of sustained international response, African resourcefulness, indigenous solutions and resilience could enable the continent to turn the corner on HIV and AIDS.”

Piot spoke in Ethiopia, which is cited in the U.N. report as the country with the 16th highest rate of prevalence in the world, with some 5,000 new infections every week.

A bright spot in the study involved African cities, such as Addis Ababa, Harare and Lusaka, where awareness and the “unprecedented use of condoms” had dramatically reduced the rate of HIV infection, Piot said.

However, he noted that the infection rates were getting worse in rural areas.

The report is based on projections mapped out over two years in collaboration with institutions including the African Union, African Development Bank, World Bank as well as Royal Dutch Shell, which shared its expertise.

“The death toll will continue to rise, no matter what is done,” the report’s summary said.

“The scenarios suggest that, while the worst of the epidemic’s impact is still to come, there is still a great deal that can be done to change the longer-term trajectory of the epidemic,” it added. 

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